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FxTwitter / FixupX
Quinn Thompson (@qthomp)
Despite receiving a tremendous amount of heat for this take, it turned out to be extremely accurate. Over $100B has come off crypto total market cap since.<br><br>Now when I look around, instead of seeing overzealous bottom callers I see a lot of pain and bearishness. Many have been stung and positioning is a lot more fair as a result.<br><br>For the first time since my bullish rant on May 17th, I am excited about getting long again.<br><br>Quoting Quinn Thompson (@qthomp) <br><br>I think there is serious cascade risk in crypto, and in particular, expect most alt coins to be taken out back. The market seems to have lost any ability to bounce, even in majors, while at the same time leverage and open interest remains high. No panic yet. I expect that changes.<br><br>Gold has rolled over, ETF inflows have slowed, the ETH ETF is weeks away at best and despite a number of attempts at breaking ATHs, Bitcoin just couldn't muster the strength. Meanwhile, stablecoin supply hasn't grown in months and with many venture funds looking to raise capital over the coming months they are being forced to show DPI, aka selling. Unlike equities which have a constant passive bid from ETF inflows and bond buybacks, crypto, and in particular alt coins, have the opposite - a constant stream of sell pressure. As we enter an already low volume summer period, the combination of significant token supply unlocks and VC sell pressure will likely be too strong of an uphill battle for most tokens. I have a feeling this market is about to learn what FDV truly means.
Despite receiving a tremendous amount of heat for this take, it turned out to be extremely accurate. Over $100B has come off crypto total market cap since.<br><br>Now when I look around, instead of seeing overzealous bottom callers I see a lot of pain and bearishness. Many have been stung and positioning is a lot more fair as a result.<br><br>For the first time since my bullish rant on May 17th, I am excited about getting long again.<br><br>Quoting Quinn Thompson (@qthomp) <br><br>I think there is serious cascade risk in crypto, and in particular, expect most alt coins to be taken out back. The market seems to have lost any ability to bounce, even in majors, while at the same time leverage and open interest remains high. No panic yet. I expect that changes.<br><br>Gold has rolled over, ETF inflows have slowed, the ETH ETF is weeks away at best and despite a number of attempts at breaking ATHs, Bitcoin just couldn't muster the strength. Meanwhile, stablecoin supply hasn't grown in months and with many venture funds looking to raise capital over the coming months they are being forced to show DPI, aka selling. Unlike equities which have a constant passive bid from ETF inflows and bond buybacks, crypto, and in particular alt coins, have the opposite - a constant stream of sell pressure. As we enter an already low volume summer period, the combination of significant token supply unlocks and VC sell pressure will likely be too strong of an uphill battle for most tokens. I have a feeling this market is about to learn what FDV truly means.
Issue #824
After a good time good time 😉😺
- Type of issue
- Submitted via the Previews bot
- Reported
- Jun 26, 2024